12 October 2008

Has the Bradley Effect been replaced with the Reverse Bradley Effect?

The Bradley Effect, named for mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley, proposes an explanation for the phenomena of a discrepancy between election results and opinion polls in contests between white and African-American opponents. In the past, voters have told pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the African-American candidate, when those voters ultimately vote for the opponent.

New studies indicate that, since certain racially sensitive issues were more or less resolved in 1996 (eg violent crime and welfare reform) that this effect has actually reversed - African-American candidates tend to do better in elections than in polling.

International Herald Tribune is there with an in depth look at the phenomena.

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